Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
