Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
